Fairness in Ranked Choice Voting – Again with a Bunch of Candidates
Here’s a ranked choice voting example. (Candidates and their votes are color coded to guide the reader through the vote-allocation logic.) Imagine these votes totals with only five candidates and 1000 initial total ballots:
- Candidate A: 420
- Candidate B: 230
- Candidate C: 160
- Candidate D: 120
- Candidate E: 70 –– lowest vote total
Candidate E gets eliminated and the 70 ballots that chose E as their 1st choice are examined for their 2nd choice candidates, resulting in:
- Candidate A: 420 + 7 = 427
- Candidate B: 230 + 8 = 238
- Candidate C: 160 + 5 = 165 — lowest vote total
- Candidate D: 120 + 50 = 170
(Note: 7+8+5+50 = 70)
Candidate D vaults into 3rd place with 170 votes. So, Candidate C is now eliminated and the 160 ballots that had C as a 1st choice are examined for their 2nd choice candidates, resulting in:
- Candidate A: 420 + 7 +10 = 437
- Candidate B: 230 + 8 + 20 = 258 — lowest vote total
- Candidate D: 120 + 50 + 130 = 300
(Note: the 5 ballots that had Candidate E as a 1st choice and C as 2nd choice are “exhausted” and will not be used in the final talley. Thanks to reader Kathy T. for catching a mistake I had originally. See, I told you this was confusing!)
Candidate D jumps into 2nd place with 300 votes. So, Candidate B is now eliminated and the 230 ballots that had B as a 1st choice are examined for their 2nd choice candidates, resulting in:
- Candidate A: 420 + 7 + 10 +40 = 477
- Candidate D: 120 + 50 + 130 + 190 = 490
Candidate D wins with 50.6% of the “vote” !
(Note: 33 ballots were “exhausted” in the process and I have assumed that there were no “undervotes,” meaning that every ballot had a 2nd choice selection, which is highly unlikely.)
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How fair is this process? (not to mention transparent!)
The above may be an unlikely and uncommon scenario, but could it happen? Sure! Would it be “fair” for a 4th place candidate to win an election because he or she was the second choice of a lot of voters? Only if you’re a supporter of Candidate D!
Doesn’t it also feel that the people who voted for marginal candidates are getting a “do over”? Should their 2nd place votes count the same as someone else’s first place vote?
Is that fair?
Do We Have a Winner with a Majority?
Also note that the winner did NOT get over 50% of the original 1000 votes cast, but only topped 50% when undervote and exhausted ballots were eliminated from the denominator. So is it a true majority or a manufactured majority?
(source:https://greatbrook.com/ranked-choice-voting-the-good-the-opaque-the-end-game/)